Evidence — QEIv18™ Equity Risk Intelligence

01 — The record

Two lenses vs holding the index · 2010 – Jun 2026 · 193 months

Index	Basis	Total return	Max drawdown	Status
ES	Buy & hold	+612.8%	35%	reference
ES	Coherence lens	+345.1%	20%	backtested · sealed since 27 Jul 2026
ES	Microstructure lens	+210.0%	35%	backtested · sealed since 27 Jul 2026
NQ	Buy & hold	+1566.9%	35%	reference
NQ	Coherence lens	+530.6%	32%	backtested · sealed since 27 Jul 2026
NQ	Microstructure lens	+420.9%	32%	backtested · sealed since 27 Jul 2026
YM	Buy & hold	+434.4%	38%	reference
YM	Coherence lens	+260.5%	18%	backtested · sealed since 27 Jul 2026
YM	Microstructure lens	+373.2%	19%	backtested · sealed since 27 Jul 2026

Buy-and-hold is the reference, not the alternative: it means 100% risk exposure, 100% of the time — 35–38% peak-to-trough losses in this record — a mandate no risk committee accepts. The comparison that matters is return per unit of worst loss, and there both lenses transform the proposition: on the Dow, the microstructure lens held 86% of the index's return at half its drawdown. Nothing was tuned per index — one grammar, three markets, judged whole. All series derive from CME settlement data (Databento), published as indexed values only.

The two lenses, side by side

One grammar, two physics · monthly points · 2010 – Jun 2026.

Equal-weight three-index portfolio of each lens, indexed to 100, compounded month by month from the tables below. Different routes — coherence steps out for whole stretches, microstructure rides more and exits faster — toward the same class of destination. Backtest on real market data; the sealed forward chains extend these lines nightly from 27 July 2026.

The drawdown record

Every decline from every peak — the underwater view.

Depth below the previous peak, month by month, for each lens over the full record. This is the chart a risk committee actually lives in — and it is shown whole. Holding the indexes outright meant 35–38% troughs in this window; the portfolio-level underwater view shows what each lens turned that into.

02 — Coherence lens · every month, every loss

Equal-weight three-index portfolio · 2010 – Jun 2026.

47% winning · 27% fully protected in cash (0.0) · 25% losing. Among exposed months 65% won; average win +3.0% vs average loss −2.2%; best streak 13 months, worst 4; hardest year 2022 −14.1%.

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Year
2010	—	—	—	—	—	-2.4	+7.3	-4.3	+9.3	+4.9	-1.0	+5.8	+20.2
2011	+2.4	+3.3	-0.2	+3.3	-1.4	-2.2	+0.4	-6.0	-6.7	+10.5	-0.4	+0.4	+2.3
2012	+5.2	+4.5	+0.1	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+1.9	+2.8	+1.4	-3.3	+1.0	-0.4	+13.8
2013	+1.7	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	-0.7	-2.0	+5.4	-2.0	+1.1	+0.5	+1.2	+2.6	+7.9
2014	-3.8	+4.2	-1.1	-2.1	+0.0	+0.2	-1.0	+3.9	-1.2	-0.4	+0.0	-0.4	-2.0
2015	-2.6	+6.4	-2.5	+1.2	+2.1	-0.1	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+2.6	+0.8	-2.3	+5.4
2016	-6.1	+0.0	+4.1	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+1.8	+0.3	+0.1	-1.2	+3.3	+1.8	+3.9
2017	+2.6	+3.9	+0.4	+0.9	+0.5	+0.0	+0.6	+0.3	+1.3	+3.7	+0.9	+0.5	+16.7
2018	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	-0.5	+1.7	+0.3	+3.2	+2.1	-1.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.2	+6.1
2019	+5.1	+3.3	+2.6	+3.7	-5.2	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+2.7	+3.9	+2.9	+20.5
2020	+0.5	-0.3	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	-1.6	+6.5	+8.6	-4.8	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+8.7
2021	-1.2	+3.5	+3.4	+5.5	-0.2	+1.4	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+1.6	+14.6
2022	-0.7	-3.0	+2.2	-7.5	-0.4	-4.3	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	-0.9	-14.1
2023	+3.2	-2.5	+6.0	+1.0	+1.4	+5.3	+0.0	+0.0	-3.2	-2.9	+9.4	+5.7	+25.3
2024	+1.3	+3.6	+2.3	-0.9	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+4.4	-1.2	+5.5	-0.2	+15.6
2025	+0.1	+0.0	+0.2	-1.0	+1.4	+5.7	+1.1	+2.1	+3.7	+0.5	+0.0	+0.0	+14.6
2026	+0.0	-1.7	-4.2	+10.6	+5.9	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	+10.2

03 — Microstructure lens · every month, every loss

The smoothest monthly profile tested.

62% winning · 3% protected · 35% losing. Among exposed months 64% won; average win +2.5% vs average loss −2.1%; best streak 10, worst 4; worst single month −7.9%; hardest year 2022 −10.0%.

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Year
2010	—	—	—	—	—	-2.4	+7.3	-4.3	+9.3	+4.9	-1.0	+5.8	+20.2
2011	+2.4	+3.3	-0.2	+3.3	-1.4	-2.2	+0.4	-6.0	-6.7	+10.5	-0.4	+0.4	+2.3
2012	+5.2	+4.6	+2.9	+0.2	-3.7	+3.6	-0.6	+0.8	-0.1	-1.9	+0.8	-0.4	+13.2
2013	+4.7	+0.9	+0.3	+0.0	+0.1	-2.0	+0.2	-1.5	+1.1	+3.9	+2.0	+2.6	+12.7
2014	-3.8	+4.6	-1.9	-0.7	+1.2	+0.1	-0.8	+1.3	-0.7	+1.6	+2.7	-0.8	+4.4
2015	-1.5	+2.5	-1.5	+1.0	+1.0	-2.2	+1.7	-2.4	-1.3	+6.0	-0.8	-1.0	+1.1
2016	-0.2	-1.8	+3.5	-1.6	+1.4	-1.1	+5.0	+0.7	+0.0	-0.7	+3.6	+2.2	+11.4
2017	+1.0	+3.1	+0.1	+0.8	+1.8	-0.3	+1.5	+1.6	+0.2	+1.1	+1.2	+0.3	+13.2
2018	+3.0	-1.9	+1.0	+0.6	+0.8	+0.6	+2.6	+3.0	+0.9	-5.7	+1.3	-6.9	-1.3
2019	+7.2	+3.2	-0.9	+1.2	-2.3	+3.1	+0.1	+0.6	-0.3	+0.7	+2.0	+1.0	+16.4
2020	-0.7	-3.4	-5.7	+4.4	+4.1	+2.6	+4.0	+5.0	-2.0	-3.6	+10.7	+2.3	+17.9
2021	+0.2	+3.8	+3.4	+4.9	-0.7	+3.0	+1.4	+1.1	-1.6	+2.4	-0.5	+0.6	+19.4
2022	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	-7.9	-0.7	-7.6	+3.3	-1.4	-3.0	+7.4	+2.8	-2.1	-10.0
2023	+1.6	-0.9	+5.0	+0.4	+2.2	+4.9	+3.6	-1.6	-3.6	-1.9	+9.0	+3.7	+24.1
2024	+0.5	+2.2	+2.3	-4.2	+0.9	+0.4	+0.3	-0.6	+1.3	-1.4	+3.0	-0.8	+3.8
2025	+0.7	-0.4	-1.0	-0.1	+2.1	+3.7	+0.4	+0.9	+3.4	+2.0	-1.6	+0.3	+10.7
2026	+1.0	-1.0	-4.4	+7.2	+0.8	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	+4.3

0.0 = fully protected month (in cash throughout). Monthly accumulation of daily states, identical grammar for both lenses, next-day application, nothing tuned per index.

04 — The honest limits

What the record shows against us.

Both lenses trail buy-and-hold's raw return over the full period — that is the disclosed price of carrying an exit mechanism, and 2022 shows each lens's cost plainly: coherence −14.1% (its Nasdaq sleeve −26.7%), microstructure −10.0%. Coherence's long cash stretches demand patience in melt-ups; microstructure changes state most often of the family. False stand-asides in choppy conditions are a known, recurring cost of the method. Performance before 27 July 2026 is a backtest on real historical market data; from 27 July 2026 every state of both lenses is recorded and cryptographically sealed before the trading session it applies to.

05 — The sealed forward record

Committed before revealed.

After each trading day's close, the state of every index under both lenses enters a growing SHA-256 chain — each entry sealing the hash of the one before it. Seven days later it is revealed on the open dashboard, unedited: a revealed state cannot have been changed after the fact, because the chain would break. Both lenses' chains have been running since 27 July 2026, alongside the master chain of our energy platform (f78fe98a…). Which lens leads long-term is exactly what these chains exist to settle — in public.

06 — Audit & verification

Built to be checked.

The engine is hash-sealed and constant — the rules that produce tomorrow's state are the rules that produced 2010's. The research chain behind these figures passed a formal audit: independent recomputation of stored values through the certified engine to below 1e-9; point-in-time integrity (every value computable from data available at its own date only); and signal-timing one day more conservative than the live convention. The audit record, engine hashes, and full strategy definitions are available to qualified institutions under NDA. Public pages carry the lens names and the record — never the recipe.

The open record

Request the full evidence — per instrument, on request.

The figures here are the public summary. Qualified institutions can review the complete per-instrument history analysis (PDF), the comparison test, and the live sealed chain — available on request to qualified institutions: institutional@neoamorfic.ai

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